21 Ecological drought has also been defined recently by a Science for Nature and People Partnership working group. Proceedings of the international snow science workshop; 2000 Oct 2-6; Big Sky MT. specific knowledge of the hydrogeology for many aquifers across the state to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources and develop adaptive strategies; and. FLBS has been collecting weather data ever since, with daily manual readings at our Yellow Bay location for the National Weather Service going back to 1938. The Lake Ontario temperature occasionally may not be representative of the surface temperature due to upwelling. 2009). Figure 3-11. 2012. A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States: update and extensions. Such patterns in annual streamflow, however, are often hidden for rivers that are highly regulated by dams or large irrigation withdrawals (e.g., the Marias River below Tiber Reservoir) (MT DNRC 2014c). The authors attributed this finding to recent increases in spring precipitation that may have offset reduced snowpack. Changes in late-summer flows are likely to be more critical to people than changes in annual flows because the demand for water is highest in summer. In western Montana, look for … Available online https://www.usgs.gov/centers/norock/science/multi-century-perspectives-c.... Accessed 2017 Mar 6. Climate science for serving society: research, modeling and prediction priorities. Journal of Hydrology 534:124-38. The individual watershed planning efforts will provide the basis for a scaled-up, integrated Headwaters Basin plan. North American drought: reconstructions, causes, and consequences. Severe and widespread flooding impacting wide geographic area, Record statewide snowpack, Intense rain and rapid snowmelt runoff. 2005. (Boxplots are explained in the caption of Figure 3-10.) Journal of Climate 21(23). https://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/current? Available online http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/objects/issw-2000-178-183.pdf. The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American cordillera. These floods are most common east of the Continental Divide during persistent cold weather fronts. Although the aquifer can be as much as 2000 ft (600 m) below the land surface, it provides water for domestic and livestock watering purposes, as well as municipal water for the towns of Baker, Circle, Lambert, and Richey. Evidence of climate-induced range contractions in bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in a Rocky Mountain watershed, USA. Paulson RW, Chase EB, Roberts RS, Moody DW. A warming climate will strongly influence Montana’s snowpack, streamflow dynamics, and groundwater resources, with far-reaching consequences for social and ecological systems. The dark black line represents the 5-year moving average. Yet warming is also likely to increase the amount of winter and spring precipitation that falls as rain (particularly in rain-snow transition zones), which will accelerate snowmelt and could increase flood risk, depending on antecedent snowpack, soil moisture, and other conditions. 2013). Snowpack at higher elevations is also less prone to melt during short warm spells in the early spring that can degrade snowpack at lower elevations. Woodhouse CA, Pederson GT, Morino K, McAfee SA, McCabe GJ. Water Resources Research 35(7):2145-60. 2013. Detectability of change in winter precipitation within mountain landscapes: spatial patterns and uncertainty. It is very likely that increased water use in the future will further reduce streamflows during summer months when demand is greatest (see drought section below). Isaak DJ, Young MK, Nagel DE, Horan DL, Groce MC. Our discussion focuses on climate as a principal driver of change for water resources. The decrease in water levels from 1995-2005 suggested that wells were removing water from the aquifer faster than it was being replenished. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86(1):39-49. National Agricultural Statistics Service [website]. 2004; McCabe and Clark 2005; Lundquist et al. Science 333(6040):332-5. Climate change in Colorado: a synthesis to support water resources management and adaptation. 2016. Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Hidalgo HG, Das T, Bonfils C, Santer BD, and 6 more. 2010; USDA-NASS 2015). The record high temperature for the state is 117°F (47.2°C), set in Glendive on July 20, 1893, while the lowest record temperature … Flooding.—While drought likely represents the greatest persistent water-resource concern in Montana, flooding has also occurred regularly throughout the state’s history, resulting in loss of life and substantial damage to property, infrastructure, and riparian ecosystems. Our focal rivers were selected to represent differences in streamflow regimes across Montana’s climate divisions. 2011a). 2007). The reported Lake Ontario water temperature is taken at the Monroe County Water Treatment Plant near Greece, N.Y. Groundwater is one of Montana’s most valuable natural resources: a) it is often the only source of water for domestic use outside of municipalities, either for individual homes or small public water supplies; b) it provides water for livestock production and agriculture in the certain parts of the state; and c) it plays a critical role in sustaining streamflow throughout the year (in a typical Montana stream, groundwater contributes 50% of the annual flow [MT DNRC 2015]). 2016. In the US, increases in extreme precipitation have been most substantial in the East, while trends in the West appear to be mixed and location specific (Salathé et al. Ultra-résistante aux températures élevées (350°C), elle est composée de résines polybutylène et de pigments de titanate de plomb stables à la chaleur. Climate models (see Climate chapter) provide a method for projecting future climate scenarios in Montana. Helena MT: State of Montana, DNRC. In Montana, the Continental Divide exerts a marked influence on climate patterns and resulting snowpack: Areas west of the Continental Divide typically exhibit milder winters, cooler summers, and a longer growing season due to the influence of warm Pacific air masses (see Climate chapter). 1999. 219 p. Available online, [MT DNRC] Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Groundwater demand will likely increase as elevated temperatures and changing seasonal availability of traditional surface-water sources (e.g., dry stock water ponds or inability of canal systems to deliver water in a timely manner) force water users to seek alternatives. However, changes in the character of precipitation (e.g., shifts from snow to rain or increases in extreme precipitation events) may cause more water to run off into streams and less to infiltrate into groundwater aquifers. Regional trends in April 1 SWE demonstrate that average annual snowpack has declined in large portions of the American West over the period of reliable measurement (1930s to present; Figure 3-7) (Mote 2003; Hamlet et al. [undated]. Climatic Change 112(3-4):997-1014. This record-breaking rainfall on a higher-than-average and late-melting snowpack along the Rocky Mountain Front caused the overtopping of the Gibson Dam on the Sun River, and the failure of Swift Dam on Birch Creek and Lower Two Medicine Dam on Two Medicine Creek. Natural variability in precipitation and temperature will continue to characterize Montana’s climate in the future, resulting in droughts of varying duration and intensity. In general, April 1 SWE in Montana has declined roughly 20% over the last 80 yr, and this decline is most pronounced at lower elevation sites (Table 3-2). Thus, for Montana, changes in snowmelt timing should be more pronounced for areas west of the Continental Divide and low-elevation sites east of the Continental Divide that contribute to winter snowpack. Les coefficients de Montana sont calculés pour chaque poste à partir des durées de retour calculées par la méthode Locale-Régionale GEV pour des pas de temps compris entre 6 minutes et 192 heures. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, editors. 2011b). What is driving the loss of permanent ice from Glacier National Park? Science 342(6164):1360-4. 2005. McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt JL. Water is also strongly influenced by climate, as changes in temperature and precipitation consistently alter patterns of water availability and quality throughout the state. 2016. We conducted an updated assessment of Montana’s April 1 SWE to assess variability and trends over the full record—from the late 1930s to present—of NRCS Snow Course observations.15 We used Snow Course rather than SNOTEL data because of its longer period of record. Climate projections and warm-season drought.—Future changes in climate are likely to increase the incidence of warm-season drought (Cook et al. Although studies have shown a strong correlation between Snow Course and SNOTEL April 1 SWE measurements (Serreze et al. El Niño Southern Oscillation: Montana [website]. As discussed in the Climate chapter, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns connected to changes in sea-surface temperatures strongly influence natural variations in precipitation and temperature (e.g., Cayan et al. Changes in temperature near the Earth’s surface will have large effects on how water enters Montana (e.g., as rain or snow), how it is distributed among the major storage pools, and how it moves or changes from one component of the water cycle to another. Sheffield J, Wood EF. Any potential decline in summer precipitation is also projected with medium confidence for many areas in Montana (see Climate chapter). Alluvial aquifers within major river valleys are more localized, but also important. Missouri headwater basin study [online report]. Image from the Montana State Water Plan 2015, courtesy of the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation (MT DNRC 2015). A sufficient supply of water (especially during the summer) is not only important for maintaining Montana’s agricultural industry, but it also underpins our natural ecosystems and the state’s rapidly growing tourism economy (Power and Power 2015, 2016). Future changes in climate will alter Montana’s hydrology. Pederson GT, Gray ST, Ault T, Marsh W, Fagre DB, Bunn AG, Woodhouse CA, Graumlich LJ. Most of Montana’s annual snowfall arrives from mid October through mid May (although snowfall has been observed in all 12 months in the mountains of Montana). long-term monitoring of groundwater levels, groundwater use, and surface-water flow to establish baseline properties and conditions for predicting change. Beneath the surface of global change: impacts of climate change on groundwater. Stewart IT, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD. McCabe GJ, Clark MP. Throughout the chapter we use the following convention to represent model agreement for the hydrologic projections: In the remainder of this chapter, we discuss how climate change will affect key parts of the water cycle. Le Montana, un État du nord-ouest des États-Unis d'Amérique et frontalier avec trois provinces du Canada qui sont la Colombie-Britannique, Alberta et Saskatchewan, est caractérisé par un climat tempéré froid. In contrast, from the mid 1980s through approximately 2000, a positive phase led to relatively low snowpack years (Figure 3-9). The northern Great Plains of eastern Montana.—Aquifers in this region are not as productive, but groundwater is nonetheless highly utilized. The information presented here represents an essential first step—understanding what’s changing—within the longer-term, iterative process of adapting and improving our resilience to the challenges of an uncertain climate future. These projections derive from a national modeling effort undertaken by a large collaborative team of agencies, universities, and research centers (LLNL undated). Environmental Research Letters 5(4):044012. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/4/044012. [MT DNRC] Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Missouri headwater basin study [online report]. Montana State Weather. Characteristics of the western United States snowpack from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) data. Warmer temperatures increase evapo-ration and water use by plants. [high agreement, medium evidence], A warming climate will strongly influence Montana’s snowpack, streamflow dynamics, and groundwater resources, with far-reaching consequences for social and ecological systems. This consistency demonstrates that interannual climate variability does not affect groundwater recharge or storage in this irrigated area. Literature synthesis on climate change implications for water and environmental resources. Canoeing the Jefferson River. Yet, despite the sunshine, temperatures are generally not too hot except during periods of heat waves. 2003. A more detailed version of this map, as well as the stream temperature data used in it, are available from the NorWeST website (USFS-RMRS undated). Precipitation that falls at higher elevations during the cold winter months accumulates as snow until spring when temperatures increase and snowmelt begins. Multi-century perspectives on current and future streamflow in the Missouri River Basin [website]. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity. McCabe GJ, Wolock DM. 2015. Pederson GT, Fagre DB, Gray ST, Graumlich LJ. Boise ID: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. We examine how changes in climate have influenced snowpack in Montana and the region; and we present model projections for snowpack in the future. Thus, understanding current trends and potential changes in warm- season drought is essential for building water resource resilience in Montana. Cook ER, Seager R, Heim RR, Vose RS, Herweijer C, Woodhouse C. 2010. Decreasing glaciers.—One of the most visible manifestations of climate warming in Montana is the rapid melting of the last remaining glaciers in Glacier National Park. Pomeroy J, Essery R, Toth B. A well distant from irrigation near Florence shows a far different water-level response, which is synchronized with interannual and seasonal variation in Bitterroot River flow. Whitfield PH. The size of pie pieces correspond to how strong the particular climate factor influences total annual streamflow. 2014d. 2004; Bales et al. Snow Course groupings on both sides of the Continental Divide show long-term downward trends in April 1 SWE (Figure 3-9, Table 3-2). Figure 3-15. Denver CO: Bureau of Reclamation, Policy and Administration. Yellowstone River basin, water plan 2014. The primary atmospheric source for the water cycle is evaporated water from the ocean. Water levels recovered following several wet years, even though wells continued to be drilled into the aquifer. These rivers are generally located in the central and eastern parts of the state, for example the Musselshell River at Mosby and the Powder River near Locate (Figure 3-6). Causes of recent changes in western North American snowpack. Filter Close Map Open map view List Close map view. Global warming and 21st century drying. Residence time is one of the factors that can affect an aquifer’s sensitivity to climate change. These measurements, typically gathered near the first of each winter month, provide our longest direct records of regional snowpack. North American trends in extreme precipitation. Journal of Hydrometeorology 10(4):871-92. 06088500 Muddy Creek near Vaughn, Montana (POR: 82 years); Updated June 11, 2020 - USGS water-resources … All of Montana’s major rivers that contain headwaters above 7000 ft (2100 m) elevation are considered snowmelt-dominated systems in which precipitation as snow is a primary driver of year-to-year variability in streamflow. Kim JS Jain S. 2010. Seasonal changes in lakes and reservoirs. Serreze MC, Clark MP, Armstrong RL, McGinnis DA, Pulwarty RS. 3 Results. Observed trends in total annual streamflow, Luce and Holden (2009) reported declines in annual streamflow during the driest years (i.e., lowest 25, Factors that influence total annual streamflow. warmed more than most of the contiguous United States. 582 p. Gillan BJ, Harper JT, Moore JN. Monthly streamflow projections for each of our focal rivers based on RCP8.5 and time period 2040-2069. 2016. Montana's record for most consecutive days with the high temperature equal to or exceeding 90 degrees was set in July - September 1922 with 38 at Crow Agency, Montana. 2nd ed. Climate warming in western North America: evidence and environmental effects. Figure 3-13. Managed or artificial groundwater recharge with excess surface water.—. Journal of Climate 12(9):2881-93. 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